1 day ago  re: Poker & Busting bankroll I know you feel about that, I lost my money for tilt, sometimes a calling station and go tourney unprepared for play poker, but I know this and I do my better thinking. Discussing bankroll management steps for online Togel, enlightening aspects like establishing a specific budget, win and loss limits, etc. Like other casino variants like slot machines, roulette, poker, and blackjacks, online Togel betting also needs dedication and a logical mindset. And, you should even know how to manage the bankroll. In the simplest terms, your poker bankroll is the amount of money you have set aside for poker. This doesn't include money you have in your bank account for bills and your mortgage, nor does it. A bankroll for a pro player cash game - so if your sole income is from poker - should be more between 50 to 100 full buy-in (table max). Lower than that, you face a (big) risk of ruin. Then I checked probably the most popular video poker game: Double Double Bonus Poker. With a 9-6 pay table, it’s a 98.98 percent return, $12.75 average loss in two hours on a quarter machine, with a $300 bankroll for a 5 percent risk of ruin and a 35.46 percent chance of a winning session.

We've covered a variety of topics in this series on multi-table tournament strategy (MTTs), starting with a discussion of tournament structures, the importance of stack sizes, and chip accumulation vs. survival strategies, then moving through the early, middle, and late stages of MTTs and onward to the final table.

To conclude the series, let's talk a little about bankroll management and tournaments, an area that sometimes trips up even experienced poker players who aren't as mindful as they should be of how the variance of MTTs should affect what buy-in levels they choose.

Tournament bankroll management: Why have a bankroll?

It goes without saying — a 'poker bankroll' refers to money set aside for poker only, and should not overlap with living expenses or other funds designated for other uses.

Most poker players who are successful over the long term practice strict bankroll management in order (1) to ensure they can play their best at all times (and not be 'scared money' playing above their heads and worried about losing), and (2) to help lessen their 'risk of ruin' by avoiding getting involved in games that can threaten to deplete their entire bankroll and force them to quit altogether.

If you're only a casual poker tournament player, perhaps jumping in MTTs once in a while for fun as a way to break up the monotony of cash games, you needn't worry too specifically about tournament-specific bankroll management. But you shouldn't ignore it, either.

The only real bankroll concern the casual MTTer should have is not to play a tournament for which the buy-in is so high it will disturb your ability to play without worry of losing what you've paid. If you typically play a $1/$2 no-limit hold'em cash game where you might win or lose as much as a few hundred in a night, playing a $5,000 NLHE tournament is probably a bad idea, both because of the higher level of competition you're likely to encounter and the possibility that your fears of not cashing and losing that big buy-in will negatively affect your play.

Some pros suggest cash game players should never risk more than around 1/20th of their cash game bankroll when playing a tournament. In other words, if you have $5,000 set aside as your cash game bankroll, you really should limit yourself to playing tournaments with buy-ins of $250 and below. If you wish to play a higher buy-in tournament, you can consider selling action in order to lessen your risk.

You can adjust that 1/20th figure up or down depending on your own risk tolerance, but be cautious about risking too much on a single 'shot' at a high buy-in MTT. Only 10-15% of those playing tournaments tend to cash, and even if you're an above-average player in the field your chance of not cashing is going to be greater than your chance of making the money at all, let alone enjoying a big score.

For players who are more serious about playing tournaments — especially if you've chosen to specialize in MTTs to the exclusion of cash — you need to think specifically about your tournament bankroll and always be mindful of how a given tournament fits or doesn't fit into the requirements you've provided for yourself.

Tournament bankroll management: How is it different from cash games?

Cash game players set bankroll requirements based both on the stakes of the games they wish to play and game types.

Obviously higher-stakes cash games require a larger bankroll than do lower-stakes ones, but perhaps not so obviously certain game types require deeper bankrolls than others because of the increased variance or 'swings' they cause.

If you wish to play short-handed (6-max.) or heads-up cash games, you need a deeper bankroll than you would if you stick with full-ring games. Similarly, playing a game like pot-limit Omaha is going to require having a larger bankroll than playing NLHE at the same stakes, since PLO typically tends to cause wider swings.

Similar principles apply to bankroll management for multi-table tournaments. That said, those familiar with managing a cash game bankroll may miscalculate what it takes to maintain a sufficient MTT bankroll.

Someone who regularly plays $1/$2 NLHE cash game for which the typical buy-in is $200 might reasonably think a bankroll consisting of 30 buy-ins or $6,000 is plenty (although more conservative players may opt for an even deeper bankroll).

However for a multi-table tournament player who plays $200 MTTs, a bankroll of $6,000 is not going to be adequate. Given the variance of MTTs, even good players can occasionally go 30 tournaments without a cash, a possibility that is much more likely to occur than for a good cash game player to blow through that many buy-ins.

Bankroll Poker

Tournament bankroll management: How many buy-ins do you need?

A typical recommendation for tournament players is to have at least 100 buy-ins in your bankroll for any tournament you play, although it should be said right off that is often a minimum recommendation. Even so, you can see that for a player of $200 MTTs, that means having a $20,000 bankroll at minimum to absorb the swings of MTTs — much higher than the bankroll of a cash game player whose buy-ins are the same $200.

The same advice goes to the online poker player who sticks with $5 multi-table tournaments, for which a $500 bankroll would represent a comfortable minimum. You can take shots at those $10 or $20 tournaments once in a while, but know that in order to move up to those buy-in levels permanently, you'll need a bigger roll.

Meanwhile, there are several other factors that can push that 100 buy-in suggestion even higher.

For one, if you're on the cautious side you may want to have at least 200 buy-ins or even as much as 500 buy-ins in your tournament bankroll. Also, if you mainly play large-field MTTs, you'll also likely want to have more buy-ins given the higher variance of those events when compared to smaller field tournaments.

How you approach tournaments — that is, your playing style — also matters when it comes to MTT bankroll management. While we've been recommending 'going for the win' in this series, many tournament players place a greater emphasis on simply cashing than focusing on trying to make final tables where they can play for real money. Such players tend not to win the big prizes up top, but may overall experience less variance and thus can get away with having smaller bankrolls. This is where many recreational MTTers end up, with bankrolls of 60 buy-ins (or even less) and cashing enough to stay in the game.

The more serious professional tournament players who do play for the win are going to need deeper bankrolls in order to handle those long stretches between final tables when they aren't cashing at all.

Tournament bankroll management: How does your ROI affect bankroll decisions?

Finally, if you keep good records (as you should) you can calculate your win rate in tournaments — commonly referred to as your return on investment or 'ROI' — and use that figure as another guide helping you decide how deep of a MTT bankroll you should have.

Your tournament ROI is calculated by dividing how much you profit in tournaments (your 'return') by the amount you spend on buy-ins (your 'investment'). Usually the result is then multiplied by 100 and shown as a percentage:

• (winnings - buy-ins) / buy-ins *100 = ROI%

While it's somewhat subjective to say what a 'good' ROI is for MTTs, obviously anything above zero percent marks you as a winning player. Having a 10-15 percent ROI is good, and anything from 25-30 percent ROI and above is going to be better than many MTTers. Meanwhile only the top pros tend to reach and sustain levels higher than those.

Having a relatively small ROI means needing a deeper bankroll so as to ensure you're able to stay in the game during those dry stretches, while having a consistently high ROI means you can get away with less.

One important word of caution, though — don't be overly affected by small sample sizes when looking at your tournament ROI. One big tournament win can inordinately skew a player's ROI, sometimes inspiring false confidence about the sustainability of such a rate.

Don't let a ROI percentage calculated from just 10 or 20 multi-table tournaments inspire wild adjustments to your MTT bankroll management strategy. In fact, some say you need at least 1,000 results for the sample size to be significant enough to be meaningful, so while you should keep track of your results, understand what they mean when you do.

Also in this series...

Ready to take a seat at the table? Put these multi-table tournament tips into practice at PokerStars.

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Introduction

Every serious poker player,every professional poker player, andevery aspiring professional poker playerwill at some pointask the same question.

“How big a bankroll do I need?”

Sometimes it isphrased differently.

• “How big a bankroll do I need to play that game?”
• “How big a bankroll do I need to go pro?”
• “How big a bankroll do I need to play at those stakes?”
• “How do I know if my bankroll is big enough?”

It is the same question.And we all ask itat one pointor another.We usually getthe same answers too.

“Twenty times the buyinfor no-limit hold’em.Three hundred big betsfor limit poker.”

It’s a rule of thumb.And it’s a pretty good one,like “Don’t draw to an inside straight.”

But that rule of thumbdoes not applyto every situation.

• Is the pot is laying fifty-to-one?
• Will your opponentcall off their entire stack?
• Are there cards thatyou can bluff with?
• What are the oddsyou havethe best hand already?
• What other cardscould give youthe best hand?

Every situation is different.And if you are a serious poker player,you know how to figure outif you shoulddraw to an inside straightin each of these situations.

A rule of thumbabout bankrolls isthe same —it does not applyto every situation.

• Are youless risk-averseor more risk-averse?
• Are you looser and more aggressiveor tighter and more passive?
• Are your opponents looser and more aggressiveor tighter and more passive?
• Are you playing a gamewith relatively high variance(like no-limit hold’em)or low variance(like limit Omaha/8)?
• Are you are playing professionallyand taking moneyout of your bankrollfor rent?
• Or are you are playing recreationallyand adding to your bankrollfrom your paycheck?

Every situation is different.And if you are a serious poker player,you should know how to figure outwhat your required bankroll isin each of these situations.

This guide willshow you how.

Table of Contents

• The Bankroll Requirement Formula

About the Author

Before we start,I want to talka little bitabout myselfin caseyou want to knowwhere this is coming from.If you don’t careabout meyou can skip aheadto “What Is a bankroll”.

In 2002,I earneda Bachelor of Sciencein Computer Sciencefrom the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

In 2006,I quit my jobas a software engineerto be a professional poker player.I played professionallyfor about seven years.

Even thoughI was a solid winner,I was perpetually brokeand constantly worriedabout my bankroll.Eventually,I went backto my careerin softwarebut I held onto the desireto understand poker bankrollsand to returnto the freedomof being a professional poker player.

In 2016,I foundthe last pieceof the puzzleand discoveredthat there really were answersto all my questionsabout my bankroll.

In October 2018,I put everythingI had learnedabout bankroll managementinto an appthat I calledNeverbust.

Neverbust implements everythingyou’re about to learnabout tracking and managingyour poker bankroll(and it isfree to start).

What Is a Bankroll?

Before you canfigure outyour bankroll requirements,you need to know whata bankroll is.

Your bankroll isthe amount of moneyyou haveto play poker.If your bankrollgoes to zeroyou can’t play anymore.You are bust.

Going bust doesn’t haveto be permanent.Most players havesome way to replenishtheir bankrolls.For some,it’s a tripto the ATM.For others,it’s a yearof saving upfor their next gambling vacation.For others,the only wayto replenish their bankrollis to go outand get a job.

Why Do Bankrolls Matter?

Bankrolls matter becauseif you don’t have a bankroll,you can’t play poker.How muchyour bankroll mattersdepends onhow muchplaying poker mattersto you.

If you area recreational player,your bankroll is importantbecause if you don’t have a bankroll,you can’t play pokerand playing poker is fun.

If you area professional player,your bankroll is importantbecause if you don’t have a bankrollyou can’t play poker,and playing poker isnot just fun,it isyour job, livelihood, and source of income.

Bottom line,if poker is importantto youthen your bankroll isalso important.

What Is Your Bankroll?

Your bankroll isthe amount of moneythat you are willing and ableto lose playing poker.

Your bankroll may beless moneythan you haveset aside for poker.If you lost 95%of the moneyyou set asidefor poker,would you be willingto gamblewith the last 5%?

Your bankroll may bemore moneythan you haveset asidefor poker.Tommy Angelo sayshis bankroll includes“all the moneyhe can borrow.”

How Big of a Bankroll Do You Need?

The answerto the question“How bigof a bankrolldo I need?”is the sameas the answerto every questionin poker.

“It depends.”

Lucky for you,I knowwhat it depends onand soonyou will too.

There isa simple formulafor calculatingyour bankroll requirements.But in orderto understand it,we need to lookat what it meansand where it comes from.

What happensif your bankrollis too small?At any moment,you might hita run of bad luck,go on a downswing,and lose a bunch of money.If your downswing isas big asor bigger thanyour bankroll,you’ll loseall your money.You’ll be bust.That is whatwe are tryingto avoid.

I havesome bad news.There isabsolutely no bankrollthat will guaranteethat you willnever bust.No matterhow bigyour bankroll is,there is some chancethat you areabout to starta downswingbig enoughto drive itto zero.

The good news isthat you can decidehow much riskyou wantto takeof going bust.It can’t be zero,but it can beas close to zeroas you want.If you knowthat number,and you knowthe characteristicsof the gameyou play,there isa simple formulafor figuring outhow big a bankrollyou need.

The Bankroll Requirement Formula

The mathematical formulafor figuring outhow big a bankrollyou needis calledthe risk-of-ruin equation.

`P(bust) = ( 2 / (1 + mu / (sqrt(mu^2 + sigma^2))) - 1)^(s / (sqrt(mu^2 + sigma^2)))`

• `P(bust)` is the probability of busting, aka your bust risk,
• `s` is your starting bankroll,
• `sigma` is standard deviation, and
• `mu` is your win rate.

Once you knowthese values,all you need to dois plug theminto the equationand you’ll know exactlyhow large a bankrollyou need.So let’s figure outwhat these values areand how to find them.

Bust Risk

Your bust risk isthe riskyou arewilling to takeof busting.

The less riskyou are willingto take,the larger a bankrollyou will need.

If you playrelatively low stakesand havea good jobthat you can useto replenish your bankroll,you may be willingto take a significant riskof going broke.

If youplay poker professionally,for high stakes,and don’t haveany other marketable skills,you will probably wantyour bust riskto be very small.

No bankrollcan completely eliminateyour bust risk.So you needto decidehow much of a riskyou are willingto take.

Win Rate

Your win rate isthe amountthat you win,on average,per hour of play.

Estimating Win Rate

It is impossibleto knowwith certainty whatyour win rate is.The best we can dois estimate it.And the best estimateof how muchyou will win per houris how muchyou have won per hour.

`bar x = X/T`

• `X` is the total amount won,
• 'T' is the total number of hours player, and
• `bar x` is the estimate of your win rate.

Losing Players

If you area losing player,you will go bustno matterhow bigyour bankroll is.If you havea large bankroll,it willtake a little longer.If your varianceis high,you have a better chanceof hitting a lucky streak firstand losing less than averageor even winningfor a while.

But if you lose moneyon average,it is onlya matter of timebefore you loseall the moneyin your bankroll.

Breakeven Players

If you area breakeven player,you will go bustno matter how largeyour bankroll is.

No matterhow largeyour bankroll is,you will eventuallyhave a downswingthat is at leastthat big.And when it happens,you will go bust.

Winning Players

If you area winning player,you havea chanceof not busting.

For every finite amount,you will eventuallyhave a downswingat leastthat big.To survive,you mustgrow your bankrollfast enoughthat when that downswing happens,your bankroll is big enoughto survive it.

Net Win Rate

When figuring outyour bankroll requirement,your win rate isn’twhat’s really important.What is really importantis how quicklyyour bankroll is growing(or not growing).

If you lose,on average,five hundred dollarsper monthat poker,but you takesix hundred dollarsfrom your paycheckevery monthand add itto your poker bankroll,then your bankroll will growone hundred dollarsper month,on average.

If you win,on average,five hundred dollarsper monthat poker,but you takesix hundred dollarsfrom your bankrollevery monthfor rent,then your bankrollwill shrinkone hundred dollarsper month,on average.

If your bankroll isshrinkingon average,it willeventually getto zero.

If your bankroll isstaying the sameon average,you will go bustwhen you hit a downswingthat isat least as largeas your bankroll.

This is another reasonamateur and casual playersdon’t have to worryabout their bankrolls.If you are addinga significant amountof moneyto your bankrollon a regular basis,it drastically lowersyour riskof going bust.

In contrast,if you are playingat stakesthat are highcompared to your disposable income,your bankroll ismuch more important.You cannot add significant amountsfrom other income.

The situation iseven more extremefor a professional poker player.They are actually taking moneyaway from their bankroll,as income.As a result,their win rates and bankrollsneed to be much higher.

Estimating Your Net Win Rate

Expenses are typically measuredon a monthly basis.So in orderto calculateyour hourly net win rateyou need to also knowhow many hoursyou playper month.

`bar x = (X/T) - (E / H)`

• `X` is the total amount won,
• `T` is the total number of hours played,
• `E` is the amount taken out of your bankroll each month, and
• `H` is the number of hours played per month.

Standard Deviation

Standard deviation isa measure ofhow muchyour results fluctuate.

At a regular job,your pay doesn’tfluctuate at all.Target pays fifteen dollarsper hour.If you spendan hour stocking shelvesat Target,they’ll pay youfifteen dollars,every time,for every hour.

Poker isn’t like that.Today you mightbe dealt huge handsover and over againand win every pot.Tomorrow you mightbe have the same big handsbut lose every potto even bigger hands.

The more your results fluctuate,the larger your bankrollneeds to be.

Your fluctuations will dependon the stakesyou play at,the type of game,your style of play,and your opponents’ style of play.

• Higher stakes gameshave more fluctuationsthan lower stakes games.
• No-limit gameshave more fluctuationsthan limit games.
• Loose-aggressive playcreates more fluctuationsthan tight-passive play.
• Loose-aggressive opponentscreate more fluctuationsthan tight-passive opponents.

Variance

Another term forthese fluctuationsis variance.

As a math term,variance is equalto the standard deviation squared.It hassome interesting propertiesand makes most formulasa little simpler.

I preferto use standard deviationbecause the numbershave an easily comprehensible meaning.

• Sixty-eight percent of the time,your results will bewithin one standard deviationof your expected value.
• Ninety-five percent of the timethey will bewithin two standard deviations.
• Ninety-nine point seven percent of the timethey will bewithin three standard deviations.

(This is known asthe 69-95-99.7 rule.)

Estimating Standard Deviation

It is impossibleto knowwith certainty whatyour standard deviation is.The best we can dois estimate it.

Sample Standard Deviation

Bankroll Poker App

For our purposes,the best estimateof standard deviationwould bethe standard deviationof your resultsafter applyingBessel’s correction.

`sigma^2 = (1/(N-1))sum_(i=1)^N(x_i - bar x)^2`

• `sigma` is your standard deviation per hour,
• `N` is the number of hours you have played,
• `x_i` is the result of the `i`-th hour, and
• `bar x` is your win rate

The problem withthis method is thatfew live poker playershave records oftheir resultson an hour-by-hour basis.We could stopevery hourto record our results,but I don’t likebeing interrupted or distractedduring a poker game.Besides,Kenny Rogers said,“Never count your moneywhen you’re sittingat the table.”

Weitzman Variance Estimator

You can useyour session resultsto estimateyour hourly standard deviationby usingan equationdeveloped by Max Weitzman.

The Weitzman variance estimatorwas first publishedon Usenetin the group rec.gambling.poker.

I discovered iton page 62of Gambling Theory and Other Topicsby Mason Malmuth.

`sigma^2 = (1/N)sum_(i=1)^N(x_i^2/t_i) - (bar x^2/N)sum_(i=1)^N t_i`

• `sigma` is your standard deviation per hour,
• `N` is the number of hours you have played,
• `x_i` is the result of the `i`-th hour, and
• `bar x` is your win rate

With the Weitzman variance estimator,you can estimate your standard deviationfrom your session results.

Conclusion

Poker Bankroll Management Spreadsheet

Most people are satisfiedwith a simple rule of thumbto calculate their bankroll requirements.Most people will neverbe successful as poker players.

Mtt Poker Bankroll Challenge

If you want to calculateyour exact bankroll requirementfor the games you play,the way you play them,the people you play against,and your specific risk tolerance,you have everything you needto do that now.

If you want a toolyou can useto record your resultsthat will calculateyour bankroll requirementsfor you(and a lot more),sign up foran account on Neverbust.It’s free to start.